Texas housing: what is overvalued, fair, and cheap

Texas, October 2026

Texas housing is fairly valued at the state level and overvalued in half of the markets that matter, and nothing in the state qualifies as cheap on the measures that decide whether a house pays for itself. That is the conclusion of scoring eight markets, from Dallas to the border, on one set of five tests with thresholds fixed in advance: price against local income, price against local rent, months of supply and how close to list price sales clear, distance from the May 2022 peak, and demand measured by population and payrolls. Fredericksburg, Austin, Corpus Christi, and Cameron County score overvalued. Dallas County, San Antonio, Houston, and Pearland score fairly valued. No market scores undervalued, and the two closest, Bexar and Dallas counties, miss on different lines.

The statewide median sold price was $330,000 in September, down 0.7 percent from a year earlier and three percent below its 2022 high, against a median household income of $78,476. That is 4.2 times income and 19.6 years of median rent, both inside the fair band and both within a few tenths of the expensive line. In 2019 the same two ratios were 3.7 times income and 18.3 years of rent: Texas Realtors put the statewide median at $240,000 that year, the Census Bureau's 2019 survey put median household income at $64,034 and median gross rent at $1,091. Prices rose 37.5 percent from 2019 to September 2026, income 22.6 percent, and rent 28.6 percent, so both ratios moved up and neither has come back. The three percent given back since 2022 does not restore the discount that drew buyers here. The arithmetic below is the same in each market: the correction has happened in prices, not in ratios.

Three things outside the housing data bear on every rating. Texas public school enrollment fell 76,613 students, or 1.4 percent, to about 5.47 million in 2025 to 2026, the first decline outside a pandemic in nearly four decades, and the state's largest urban districts are closing campuses as a result. The state's largest homebuilder reported a 20 percent cancellation rate and said incentives would stay elevated through the fall. And the Texas Stock Exchange began trading primary listings on October 5, with nine companies moved or scheduled by October 19 and none of them in real estate. Each of those is covered in its own section before the market by market work.

Rating method

Five measures, each scored plus one, zero, or minus one. Plus is the cheap direction. The thresholds are fixed and printed so a reader can disagree and rerun the arithmetic.

Price to income. Median sold price divided by median household income for the same geography, income from the Census Bureau's 2020 to 2024 five year estimate in 2024 dollars. Under 3.5 scores plus one. Over 4.5 scores minus one.

Price to rent. Median sold price divided by twelve months of the county's median gross rent from the same Census estimate. Under 16 scores plus one. Over 20 scores minus one. Above 20, the gross yield on a rental is under five percent before taxes, insurance, and vacancy.

Supply and clearing. Months of inventory and the ratio of sold price to list price from the local association or MLS. Under five months with sales clearing above 95 percent of list scores plus one. Over seven months, or sales clearing under 93 percent, scores minus one.

Distance from the 2022 peak. Current median against the market's own May or June 2022 high. More than 15 percent below scores plus one. Within five percent of the peak, or above it, scores minus one. Where no sold price peak is published the proxy is named.

Demand. County population growth from April 2020 to July 2025 against the state's 8.8 percent, and the latest year over year change in metro nonfarm jobs. Above the state with jobs rising scores plus one. Flat population or falling jobs scores minus one.

Plus two or better is undervalued. Minus two or worse is overvalued. Everything between is fairly valued. Insurance and water are not scored, because they are not comparable between inland and coastal markets, but they are stated wherever they change the practical answer.

Income and rent are county figures. Prices are whatever the local association publishes, which is a county in Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio, a metro in Houston and Corpus Christi, and a city in Pearland and Brownsville. Geographies were matched where both numbers exist and flagged where they do not. The Census income figure is a five year average through 2024 and understates October 2026 earnings by one to two years of wage growth; that bias is the same direction in every market and does not change a rating.

The scorecard

Market	Price	Income	Price to income	Price to rent	Months	Vs 2022 peak	Score	Rating
Fredericksburg, Gillespie	$451,430	$76,162	5.9	28.1	n/a, 125 days	at peak	minus 3	Overvalued
Austin, Travis	$497,400	$99,611	5.0	23.8	5.8	minus 23 percent (metro)	minus 2	Overvalued
Corpus Christi, Nueces	$285,000	$66,897	4.3	18.5	8.5	n/a	minus 2	Overvalued
Brownsville, Cameron	$249,781	$52,601	4.7	22.8	6.7 (metro)	above 2022	minus 4	Overvalued
Dallas County	$360,000	$76,547	4.7	19.2	4.1	minus 13 percent	minus 1	Fairly valued
San Antonio, Bexar	$282,680	$72,341	3.9	17.4	5.4	minus 13 percent	minus 1	Fairly valued
Houston, Harris	$325,000	$74,983	4.3	19.3	5.5	minus 8 percent	0	Fairly valued
Pearland, Brazoria	$379,819	$118,842	3.2	21.8	conflicting	n/a	plus 1	Fairly valued
Texas	$330,000	$78,476	4.2	19.6	5.5	minus 3 percent	benchmark

Prices are the most recent month published as of October 14: September for Austin, Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Brownsville, Pearland, and Gillespie, and July for Corpus Christi from the Texas Real Estate Research Center. The Texas row uses the statewide September median from Texas Realtors and July months of supply.

Statewide: schools, enrollment, and the builders

The school enrollment decline is the structural fact under every market below. Texas 2036 counted 5.47 million public school students in 2025 to 2026, down 76,613 from the prior year, with 18 of the state's 20 education service center regions losing students and the Rio Grande Valley among the sharpest declines. The Texas Tribune's reading of the same data found Hispanic students accounted for 81 percent of the drop. Houston ISD lost 8,317 students in a year to 168,410 and closed 12 campuses at the end of the 2025 to 2026 year; Austin ISD opened this fall at 65,951, down 3,765; Northside ISD in San Antonio budgeted for 95,461, down 2,159; Corpus Christi ISD is at 32,041, down 17 percent since 2016, and has a seven school closure plan against a $27 million deficit; Brownsville ISD lost 1,600 in a year, 600 more than it projected. The state's education savings account program, Texas Education Freedom Accounts, had paid out to nearly 110,000 students as of September with more than 106,000 on a waitlist and a $1 billion budget, and the comptroller has asked the Legislature to double it. For a housing analyst the relevant fact is that the districts losing students are the urban cores, and the districts gaining are the suburban rings that carry the state's A ratings: Eanes and Lake Travis in Travis County, Highland Park and Coppell in Dallas County, Pearland and Friendswood in Brazoria, Los Fresnos in Cameron. Harris and Bexar counties' major districts carry no A rating at the district level in the 2026 cycle; Tomball ISD on the Harris edge does.

Higher education is moving the other way. Statewide fall 2025 enrollment set a record at 1,680,517, up 4.7 percent, and the fall 2026 releases that have come in are up again: UT San Antonio above 44,000 after its merger with UT Health San Antonio, up nearly five percent; Rice at about 9,200 with 5,000 undergraduates for the first time; the University of Houston with a freshman class near 7,100, its first above 7,000; SMU with its largest first year class on record. The state's universities are a demand source for rental housing in four of the eight markets here, and the one market where that source is weakest, Corpus Christi, is the one with the flattest population.

The builders report the other half of the supply picture. D.R. Horton of Arlington, the largest homebuilder in the country, closed 23,983 homes in its fiscal third quarter ended June 30, up four percent, on consolidated revenue of $9.2 billion, flat, and net income of $904.9 million, down 12 percent. Its cancellation rate was 20 percent against 17 percent a year earlier, net orders were flat at 23,084, and home sales gross margin was 20.7 percent. Executive Chairman David Auld said the company expected "sales incentives to remain elevated during the fourth quarter." The fiscal fourth quarter report is October 29. LGI Homes of The Woodlands closed 1,365 homes in the second quarter at an average price of $367,407 with a homebuilding gross margin of 19.8 percent and a six month cancellation rate of 47.4 percent; its preliminary third quarter closings were 1,222, up 10.4 percent, and it reports November 3. Green Brick Partners of Plano reports October 28. On the rental side, Camden Property Trust of Houston reported second quarter same property revenue down 0.1 percent year over year, occupancy of 95.7 percent, new lease rates down 3.3 percent and renewals up 2.8 percent for a blended change of minus 0.2 percent, and said on its call that it plans to modestly reduce exposure to Houston, one of its two largest markets. Howard Hughes Holdings of The Woodlands sold $170.9 million of master planned community land in the second quarter against $125.0 million a year earlier, with residential acres fetching an average $1.2 million in the first half. None of this is characterized here beyond what the companies reported. The figures matter because the public builders set the new home price and the incentive level that the resale market in every Texas suburb has to compete with, and a 20 percent cancellation rate with elevated incentives is the builders' own description of the buyer.

The Texas Stock Exchange

The exchange opened for corporate primary listings on October 5, 2026, and the first three weeks are a matter of record. Charles Schwab, headquartered in Westlake, announced a secondary listing on October 1 with trading set for October 7; its primary listing stays on the NYSE, and its third quarter results on October 15 are the first report by a company carrying a TXSE listing. Energy Transfer, Sunoco, SunocoCorp, and USA Compression moved their primary listings from the NYSE on October 5, a combined market value the exchange put at nearly $100 billion; all four are chaired by the man who holds nearly 30 percent of TXSE Group. Dillard's moved from the NYSE the same day. Texas Capital Bancshares moved from Nasdaq on October 8 and will change its ticker to TXCP on November 9. Origin Bancorp of Ruston, Louisiana moved from the NYSE on October 13. CECO Environmental of Addison is scheduled for October 19. International Bancshares Corporation of Laredo, with about $17 billion of assets, announced on October 6 that it will leave Nasdaq at the close on October 16 and open on TXSE October 19. Before the corporate listings, a set of exchange traded products transferred on September 16, and Westwood Holdings of Dallas listed a new power and infrastructure ETF on September 17 as the exchange's first new product.

The relevance to real estate is indirect so far. No homebuilder, REIT, or land developer has listed or announced a transfer. Two of the nine issuers, Texas Capital and International Bancshares, are commercial real estate lenders in the state, and their quarterly reports will carry Texas loan and deposit data that previously sat on Nasdaq. The exchange has published no trading volume figures. D Magazine's tracker, last updated October 2, notes the exchange reserves dual listings for companies above $100 billion in market value, which limits the secondary listing route to a handful of names. The count to watch is companies with no tie to the exchange's owners that move their primary listing: Dillard's, Texas Capital, Origin, CECO, and International Bancshares make five, against four with a common chairman and one secondary listing.

Austin and Travis County: overvalued, minus 2

Housing. The Austin Round Rock San Marcos metro median was $421,000 in September, 23.5 percent below the $550,000 peak of May 2022 and the deepest correction of any major metro in the country. That earns the plus one on the peak measure and does not rescue the rating. Travis County's median sold price was $497,400 in September, up 2.6 percent from a year earlier, against a county median household income of $99,611: five times income, minus one. Against a median gross rent of $1,744 it is 23.8 years of rent, minus one. Travis carried 5.8 months of inventory and the metro closed at 92.7 percent of list, which means the typical seller conceded more than seven percent to close; minus one. Population grew 7.7 percent since 2020, under the state, with metro jobs up about 1.8 percent over the year on the Dallas Fed's series; zero. Closed sales in the metro were down 14.8 percent from a year earlier.

A reader who matches the metro price to Travis income gets 4.2 times, a zero, and a rating of fairly valued. The county price was used here because the metro median blends Hays and Williamson, where houses and wages are both lower. The price to rent score is minus one on either reading.

Submarkets and schools. The Travis County price is a blend of two markets. West of MoPac, Eanes ISD scored 94 and Lake Travis ISD 91 in the Texas Education Agency's August 2026 ratings, both A, and the city of Austin median of $570,958 is dragged up by the Eanes and Lake Travis attendance zones. Austin ISD, the county's largest district, moved from a C to a B this year with a score of 81, and its enrollment fell to 65,951 from 69,716, more than 2,000 below its own projection, with a budget strained by the loss. Round Rock ISD scored 89 and Leander 87, both B. The affordable part of the metro is in those two districts and in Hays County, and it is where the builders are concentrated.

Colleges. UT Austin reported record enrollment of 55,000 in fall 2025 with a freshman class of 9,900, and took more than 100,000 undergraduate applications for fall 2026; the fall 2026 count has not been released. The university's growth is the single largest demand source for the central city rental market.

Commercial. Office vacancy was 23.6 percent in the third quarter per CBRE, up 40 basis points, almost entirely because Waterline Tower delivered more than 700,000 square feet of vacant Class A space downtown; the CBD rate is 33.3 percent per Cushman and Wakefield, with 3.2 million square feet of sublease space on the market. Net absorption was positive at 253,000 square feet. Industrial absorbed 1.22 million square feet in the quarter with 5.5 million under construction, and asking rent was down 0.7 percent over the year. The multifamily market is where the correction is deepest: Cushman and Wakefield had stabilized vacancy at 9.8 percent in the second quarter with effective rent of $1,423, down 4.1 percent year over year, and Matthews has completions down 51 percent from the 2024 peak of 32,089 units with 14,610 still under construction. Falling rents against a flat to rising house price is what a price to rent ratio of 24 looks like in motion.

Dallas County: fairly valued, minus 1

Housing. Dallas County's single family median was $360,000 in September, unchanged from a year earlier, on 1,316 closed sales, down four percent. Against a county income of $76,547 that is 4.7 times, minus one. Price to rent is 19.2 on a median gross rent of $1,565, inside the band. The county carried 4.1 months of inventory with 50 days on market and sales clearing at 93.9 percent of list, which sits between the lines and scores zero; the clearing ratio is what keeps the supply measure from scoring plus one. The median is 13.3 percent below its $415,000 peak of May 2022, a zero by less than two points. Population grew 1.9 percent since 2020, the second slowest of the eight, with metro jobs up about one percent; zero.

The metro is a different market from the county. Dallas Fort Worth's median was $385,000 in September with 4.3 months of inventory and 62 days on market, and Northmarq reported the metro absorbed nearly 20,000 apartments in the first half of the year against about 13,000 delivered, the strongest net absorption in the country, with asking rent flat at $1,496. That demand is landing in Collin and Denton counties, not in Dallas County, which is why the county's population figure is a fraction of the metro's.

Submarkets and schools. Highland Park ISD and Coppell ISD both held A ratings in the 2026 cycle, and the Park Cities and Coppell are the county's two price premium submarkets for that reason. Dallas ISD scored 85, a B, up from 83, with enrollment near 130,000 entering the school year after a decline last year; Richardson ISD moved up to a B. Plano ISD in Collin County, the district most Dallas County buyers compare against, scored a B. The county's A rated districts are small and built out, which caps how much of the metro's growth the county can capture.

Colleges. UT Dallas enrolled 30,139 in fall 2025. SMU reported its largest first year class on record for fall 2026, above 1,800, with applications up nearly 60 percent over two years.

Commercial. Office vacancy was 24.6 percent in the third quarter per CBRE, down 40 basis points, with one million square feet of positive absorption and 3.48 million square feet under construction; Cushman and Wakefield put sublease space at 5.3 million square feet, the lowest since the second quarter of 2020, and Class A asking rent at a record $39.94. The Dallas CBD was 33.7 percent vacant in the second quarter. Industrial vacancy fell to 7.8 percent from 8.2 percent on 6.4 million square feet of absorption per CBRE, with 33.9 million square feet under construction, the largest pipeline in the state, and Cushman and Wakefield had asking rent up 19.9 percent over the year to $9.76. Multifamily stabilized vacancy was 9.6 percent in the second quarter with effective rent of $1,470, down 2.8 percent, and just over 30,200 units under construction.

Houston and Harris County: fairly valued, zero

Housing. The Houston Association of Realtors' single family median was $325,000 in September, $990 below a year earlier, on 7,030 closed sales, down 5.7 percent. Against a Harris County income of $74,983 that is 4.3 times, zero. Price to rent is 19.3 on a $1,401 median gross rent, zero. Inventory was 5.5 months, up from 5.1, with 58 days on market and 40,192 active listings, up 6.3 percent; HAR does not publish a sold to list ratio, and 5.5 months sits between the lines, zero. The median is 8.5 percent below the June 2022 peak of $355,000, zero. Harris County grew 6.7 percent since 2020 and metro jobs are up 44,700, or 1.3 percent, over the year; zero. Pending sales were down 11.6 percent. HAR's August rental update had the average single family lease at $2,412, flat.

Houston is the one market that scores zero on all five, and the figure that would move it is not in the score. Insurify puts the average Houston homeowners policy at $6,084 a year for $300,000 of dwelling coverage, more than twice the national figure, and the state insurance commissioner told the Legislature in June that the average Texas policy has gone from under $2,000 in 2020 to over $3,500. On a $325,000 house with ten percent down at September's rates, the insurance bill is about a quarter of the principal and interest payment. The ratios say fair. The carry cost says fair for an owner and expensive for a first buyer.

Submarkets and schools. None of Harris County's five largest districts carries an A rating in the 2026 cycle. Katy ISD and Klein ISD each scored 88, Cy Fair, Spring Branch, and Houston ISD are B rated, and Tomball ISD on the county's northwest edge is the nearest A. Houston ISD remains under state management until at least June 2027; it reports 205 campuses rated A or B, up from fewer than half that in 2023, and an enrollment of 168,410 at the October 2025 snapshot, down 8,317 in a year and 25,795 over four years, with another 4,000 projected to leave this year. Katy ISD gained 6,927 students over the same four years. The housing market inside Loop 610 is losing its school district's families to the Katy and Cy Fair zones, and the price gap between the two has not closed to reflect it.

Colleges. The University of Houston enrolled nearly 49,000 in fall 2025 and reported a record freshman class near 7,100 for fall 2026 on 39,000 applications, up 12 percent. Rice reported about 9,200 students, with undergraduates at 5,000 for the first time.

Commercial. Savills put Houston office availability at 26.2 percent in the third quarter, down 60 basis points over the year, with 4.6 million square feet of sublease space and trophy and premier Class A availability at 12.7 percent; leasing activity was 2.2 million square feet, and CBRE had it down 53 percent from a year earlier. The downtown availability rate was 28.9 percent. Industrial is the strongest sector in the state: vacancy 6.3 percent per both CBRE and Cushman and Wakefield, 7.2 million square feet absorbed in the quarter, 18.4 million under construction, and a record asking rent of $8.16, up five percent over the year. Retail posted its first negative quarterly absorption since 2006 in the second quarter, minus 517,946 square feet, at 5.8 percent vacancy. Multifamily stabilized vacancy was 11.1 percent in the second quarter per Cushman and Wakefield with effective rent of $1,312, down 2.3 percent, and 11,756 units under construction, which is consistent with Camden's reported decision to reduce its Houston exposure.

San Antonio and Bexar County: fairly valued, minus 1

Housing. Bexar County's single family median was $282,680 in September, down 4.8 percent from a year earlier, on 1,839 sales, up six percent. Against a county income of $72,341 that is 3.9 times, inside the fair band and the closest to the cheap line of any market here. Price to rent is 17.4 on a $1,354 median gross rent, zero. The county is 13 percent below its $325,000 peak of May and June 2022, zero. Population grew 7.5 percent since 2020, close to the state, with metro jobs up between 0.5 and 0.9 percent depending on the series; zero.

The minus one is clearing. Bexar carried 5.4 months of inventory and the San Antonio area closed at 92.4 percent of original list in September with average days on market at 88, up 11 percent, and pending sales down 16 percent. Sellers are conceding seven and a half percent to close. That is the sign the price has further to fall before the ratios stop improving, and it is why the county scores fair rather than undervalued despite the best income ratio in the state. Two paths move it: a Bexar median under $270,000, which would be about 3.7 times income, or the clearing ratio back above 95 percent. Zonda had new home sales down 8.2 percent in June, with builders carrying the market on closing cost credits, so the first path is the likelier one.

Submarkets and schools. Bexar is the only large county here where neither of the two biggest districts holds an A or a B at the district level. Northside ISD, the state's fourth largest district at about 98,000 students, is C rated with 8 A campuses, 43 B, 47 C, 15 D, and 5 F, and budgeted for 95,461 students this year, down 2,159. North East ISD moved up to a B and budgeted for 51,088, down 2,600. Alamo Heights ISD is a B. San Antonio ISD is a C with failing campuses cut from 20 to 9. The county's A ratings sit at Fort Sam Houston ISD and Randolph Field ISD, both on military installations, which tells a buyer where the price support in Bexar comes from: the bases, the medical center, and the universities, not the school zones.

Colleges. UT San Antonio enrolled more than 44,000 for fall 2026, up nearly five percent, a year after absorbing UT Health San Antonio; the Alamo Colleges are at 101,714 and Texas A&M San Antonio at 7,697.

Commercial. Office vacancy was 17.8 percent in the third quarter per CBRE, the lowest of the four big metros, with 28,000 square feet of positive absorption. Industrial vacancy was 10.3 percent, the highest of the four, with 796,000 square feet absorbed, 2.44 million under construction, down from 2.86 million, and asking rent of $8.81, up five percent over the year. Multifamily is the weak sector: Cushman and Wakefield had stabilized vacancy at 13.8 percent in the second quarter with effective rent of $1,161, down 5.5 percent, and 3,287 units under construction. A 5.5 percent rent decline against a 4.8 percent price decline leaves the price to rent ratio where it was.

Corpus Christi and Nueces County: overvalued, minus 2

Housing. The Corpus Christi metro median was $285,000 in July per the Texas Real Estate Research Center, with sales down 10.6 percent and 8.5 months of supply, the highest of any market here and past the seven month line; minus one. Redfin's September city figure has the median flat at $269,772 with sales down 12.4 percent and 68 days on market. Against a Nueces County income of $66,897 the metro price is 4.3 times, zero, and 18.5 years of rent on a $1,283 median gross rent, zero. No sold price peak is published; the county's median listing price peaked at $349,950 in June 2022, and the measure scores zero for lack of a comparable figure. Demand scores minus one: Nueces County had 352,992 people in July 2025 against 353,346 in April 2020, a decline of 354, in a state that grew 8.8 percent, and metro jobs are up about half a percent.

The price is fair on income and rent and overvalued because the market has stopped clearing. A county with no population growth and eight and a half months of inventory has a price that has not adjusted to its volume.

Water and insurance. The combined Choke Canyon and Lake Corpus Christi system stood at 39.0 percent on October 9, up from 13.7 percent a year earlier after a wet spring and still under half, and the city's long term supply plan rests on projects not yet built. TWIA carried 51,324 policies in Nueces County at June 30 with $22.1 billion of exposure.

Submarkets and schools. Corpus Christi ISD is B rated with enrollment of 32,041, down 17 percent since 2016 and down from 36,618 in 2019, and the district has proposed closing seven schools against a $27 million deficit. Calallen and Flour Bluff are B rated. There is no A rated district in the county, and the suburban growth that would normally produce one is going to San Patricio County across the bay, where the industrial payroll is.

Colleges. Texas A&M Corpus Christi enrolled more than 11,360 in fall 2025, flat, with 3,060 freshmen. It is the smallest university demand source of the eight markets.

Commercial. No brokerage publishes a quarterly office, industrial, or retail report for the metro. The industrial story is the port's, and the port's volume does not translate into housing demand when the county's population is flat.

Fredericksburg and Gillespie County: overvalued, minus 3

Housing. Redfin's trailing three month median for Gillespie County was $451,430 in September on 20 sales, a thin sample that Redfin itself flags; the Census estimate of owner occupied home value, $460,700, confirms the level from a larger base. Against a county income of $76,162 that is 5.9 times, the highest ratio of the eight by a full point, minus one. Against a median gross rent of $1,340 it is 28.1 years of rent, minus one; no other market is above 24. There is no published sold price series for the peak measure, so the FHFA all transactions index stands in: 381 in 2022, 369 in 2024, 384 in 2025. The county is at a new high while every large market in the state corrected at least eight percent; minus one. Homes took a median 125 days to sell, up 28 days in a year, and Realtor.com's median listing price for the micro area is $747,000. Population grew 6.7 percent since 2020 with a third of residents over 65 and a median age of 50.7; demand scores zero.

The buyers are retirees and second home owners from the three big metros who do not need a local wage, which is why the income ratio can sit at 5.9 and the price can hold. What they need is the short term rental math to work. AirDNA has Fredericksburg occupancy at 42 percent, down 2.1 percent, and revenue per available night down 13.9 percent year over year across 2,617 listings. The city collected $5.8 million of hotel occupancy tax in 2022, the last year the visitors bureau published, with short term rentals about 29 percent of $122.9 million in gross lodging receipts. A market priced at 28 years of rent on the assumption that nightly rent fills the gap has its one supporting number moving against it.

Schools and institutions. Fredericksburg ISD is B rated with 2,971 students and an economically disadvantaged share of 61.6 percent, up almost ten points since 2016. The district's enrollment is flat while the county's population grows, which is the demographic signature of a retirement and second home market.

Commercial. There is no quarterly commercial report for the county; the commercial market is Main Street retail and lodging, and the lodging data above is the relevant figure.

Cameron County: overvalued, minus 4

Housing. Brownsville's median sold price was $249,781 in September, down two percent, with 50 days on market and sales clearing at 93.4 percent of list. Against a Cameron County income of $52,601, the lowest of the eight by a wide margin, that is 4.75 times, minus one. Against a median gross rent of $912 it is 22.8 years, minus one. The Brownsville Harlingen metro carried 6.7 months of supply in August with 119 days to sell per the Texas Real Estate Research Center, which with the 93.4 percent clearing ratio scores zero. There is no published 2022 sold price peak; Redfin's first quarter averages ran $247,483 in 2022 and $262,967 in 2026, so prices are above their 2022 level, minus one. Metro nonfarm jobs were 159,500 in August, down 1,100 from a year earlier, and the county grew 3.0 percent since 2020, a third of the state's pace; minus one.

A $250,000 house is not expensive by the standard of any other market here. It is expensive by the standard of Cameron County, where the income that has to service it is $52,601 and the payroll that produces that income is shrinking. Harlingen, at $240,000 and 76 days, is the healthiest of the county's three markets and still 4.6 times county income. South Padre Island is a separate condo market: $484,757 in July, 169 days on market, up 68 days, sales down five percent, and 94.9 percent of list.

Insurance. TWIA carried 11,303 policies in Cameron County at June 30 with $5.1 billion of exposure.

Submarkets and schools. Los Fresnos CISD earned an A in the 2026 cycle, the only A among the county's districts, and the Los Fresnos zone north of Brownsville is the one submarket with a school district the price can point to. Brownsville ISD and Harlingen CISD both scored 87, B, and IDEA Public Schools is a B. Brownsville ISD's enrollment is 34,337, down from 37,032 two years earlier; the district lost 1,600 students in the 2025 to 2026 year, 600 more than it projected, and reassigned teachers as a result.

Colleges. UT Rio Grande Valley enrolled more than 35,100 at its September 2025 census and Texas Southmost College 9,207, up 4.3 percent. Fall 2026 counts have not been published.

Commercial. No brokerage publishes quarterly figures for the Valley. The commercial demand in the county is the port, the LNG terminal, and the launch site, and the housing data above show the price moved with those headlines before the payroll did.

Brazoria County: fairly valued, plus 1

Housing. Pearland's median sold price was $379,819 in September per Redfin, up 0.5 percent, on 359 sales with 32 days on market and sales clearing at 98.1 percent of list. This is the one market where a city price can be matched to a city income: Pearland's median household income is $118,842, and the ratio is 3.2 times, plus one, the only plus on that line in the state. Price to rent is 21.8 on the county's $1,454 median gross rent, minus one, though Pearland rents run well above the county figure and Zillow's $2,355 city average would give 13.4 and a plus. The county grew 12.6 percent since 2020, the fastest of the eight, with Houston metro jobs up 1.3 percent; plus one. There is no published 2022 peak for Pearland; the county's median listing price peaked at $389,450 in May 2022 and was $359,888 in August, 7.6 percent lower, zero.

Supply scores zero because the sources conflict. HAR had Pearland at 3.9 months and 40 days in September and Redfin at 32 days and 98.1 percent of list, either of which would score plus one on its own. Orchard's rolling read had 8.6 months of supply and 542 homes for sale, and a Pearland agent's six month review found 43.5 percent of listings failing to sell. Both cannot be right about the same market, and the score stays at zero until one of them gives. Lake Jackson, the county's other market, had a median of $288,809 in August, up 11.1 percent, with 43 days on market. Surfside Beach, the county's coast, had 148 active listings and four closings in the first half of June, the four sold at an average $312,500 against a $430,000 median asking price, with active listings averaging 354 days on market.

Insurance. TWIA carried 58,151 policies in Brazoria County at June 30, up 5.3 percent in a year, with $25.7 billion of exposure, a fifth of everything the association insures, and wrote 51 percent of the county's residential windstorm market in 2025. Pearland is thirty miles from the beach and inside that zone. A house at 3.2 times income with a coastal insurance stack is fairly valued.

Submarkets and schools. Pearland ISD scored 91 and Friendswood ISD 92 in the 2026 cycle, both A, and Alvin ISD, the county's largest district at 29,994 students, scored 86, a B, with the growth in Manvel and Iowa Colony inside its boundaries. Brazosport ISD moved up to a B at 83. The Pearland ISD zone is the price support for the county's north half and the reason Pearland's income ratio is the state's best.

Colleges. Brazosport College and Alvin Community College both reported record enrollment for fall 2025, Alvin at 6,377 on the first day, up about nine percent, and both are trade pipelines into the Dow, Phillips 66, and Freeport LNG payrolls that anchor the south county.

Commercial. The county's commercial market is industrial land along Highway 36 and FM 1495 between Angleton and Port Freeport, which dredged its channel to 56 feet this year. No brokerage publishes a county level quarterly report; the Houston industrial figures above, 6.3 percent vacancy and a record asking rent, are the nearest proxy.

Why no market scores undervalued

The state benchmark is the reason. Texas sits at 4.2 times income and 19.6 years of rent with 5.5 months of supply, in the fair band and a few tenths from the expensive line on both ratios. The eight markets are distributed around that benchmark, four above it and four near it, and a benchmark near the top of fair cannot produce a market at the bottom of cheap without a local collapse in price or a local surge in income. Neither has happened. The nearest candidates are Bexar County, which has the income ratio and not the clearing, and Dallas County, which has the clearing and not the income ratio.

Mortgage rates are the other reason. The 30 year rate spent September above seven percent. At that rate a house at 3.5 times income takes more than a third of a median household's gross pay to carry with Texas property taxes and the insurance figures above, and no market with a job base trades at 3.5 times income while that is true. The plus one thresholds on this scorecard describe a market that has not existed since 2021. They were left where they are on purpose. A rating method that moves its lines until something passes is not a rating method.

Why the adjustment is slow

A market can carry five to eight months of supply and a flat price for years when the two sides are solving different equations, and that is the condition in Texas now. On the seller's side, the Federal Housing Finance Agency's National Mortgage Database put 50.6 percent of outstanding mortgages at rates under four percent at the end of 2025 and 19.7 percent under three percent, down from 65 percent and 24.6 percent at the 2022 peak but still half the market. An owner with a three percent loan who sells and buys an equivalent house at this month's rate takes on a payment 62 percent higher on the same balance: $1,265 a month becomes $2,044 on $300,000. The rational response is to hold, and to list only at a price that compensates for giving up the loan. Those are the listings sitting at 88 days in San Antonio and 125 in Fredericksburg.

On the buyer's side the same arithmetic runs the other way. A household that could carry $300,000 of debt at three percent can carry about $186,000 at 7.24 percent for the same payment. The buyer is pricing the house off today's rate and the seller is pricing it off the rate he already has, and neither is wrong about his own position. That gap is why inventory can rise, days on market can lengthen, and the sold price can barely move, all at once, in a market that looks like it should be clearing lower. Housing adjusts through volume before it adjusts through price, because no one is forced to transact at a loss and most owners can wait. Closed sales are down 14.8 percent in Austin, 5.7 percent in Houston, 10.6 percent in Corpus Christi, and seven percent across Dallas Fort Worth, and the medians in those four markets moved 1.4, 0.3, zero, and one percent. The volume has adjusted. The price has not.

The lock does not get broken by the owners who hold it. It expires with them. Realtor.com's October 5 analysis projects owner occupied homes held by the baby boomers and the generation before them falling from 36.7 million to 22.8 million by 2036, a net release of 13.9 million homes over the decade, about 1.4 million a year and nearly six million more than the decade before, through death, moves to care, and household consolidation. Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies projects household formation over the same period at about 859,000 a year against 1.2 million since 2000. Most of the released homes will be sold rather than kept: a Charles Schwab study reported by the Wall Street Journal found nearly 70 percent of heirs intend to sell what they inherit, and Trust and Will's 2026 survey of 500 past heirs found 56 percent did. That supply arrives without a rate attached to it, because an estate does not care what the decedent's mortgage was, and it arrives at the pace of actuarial tables rather than Fed meetings. It is the strongest argument against a Texas price correction and the strongest argument for a slow decline: the market does not get a 2008 style reset because the sellers are not forced, and it does not get a recovery to the old ratios because the supply keeps coming for ten years from owners who no longer have a reason to hold. The ratings above should be read against that clock. Fairly valued at today's ratios is fairly valued in a market whose supply overhang is demographic, and overvalued is overvalued in a market where the correction arrives as a decade of flat prices while incomes catch up, rather than a single year of falling ones.

What we would want to see

The Bexar County single family median falls below $270,000, or the San Antonio area's sold to original list ratio recovers above 95 percent; either moves San Antonio to undervalued.
Travis County's median drops under $450,000 with metro effective rents stabilizing, which brings Austin's price to rent under 22 and its price to income under 4.5.
Corpus Christi's months of supply falls under seven in two consecutive Texas Real Estate Research Center reports and the Nueces County population estimate turns positive.
The Brownsville Harlingen metro adds jobs year over year for two consecutive months in the BLS series.
The Gillespie County FHFA index prints below its 2022 level, or Fredericksburg's median days on market falls back under 90.
The Pearland supply figures from HAR and Orchard converge within two months of each other.
D.R. Horton's October 29 report shows a cancellation rate under 18 percent, or the average Texas homeowners policy, as reported by the insurance commissioner, stops rising for a full year.

Of the eight, Dallas County and Bexar County are the two we would look at, in that order: both have corrected, both clear in reasonable time, and neither carries a coastal insurance bill. We would want Bexar five percent cheaper first. We would not buy in Fredericksburg, Austin, or Cameron County at these prices on any argument we have examined, and we would not buy in Corpus Christi until the inventory clears and the reservoir is above half. Houston and Pearland are fair, and fair is not a reason to act. The scorecard is rerun when the fourth quarter reports land in January, with the lines where they are.

This is general commentary about Texas real estate markets. It is not advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer to buy or sell anything. See the disclosures page.

Sources

U.S. Census Bureau, QuickFacts, Vintage 2025 population estimates and ACS 2020 to 2024 five year estimates for Texas and Travis, Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Nueces, Gillespie, Cameron, and Brazoria counties
Unlock MLS, September 2026 Central Texas Housing Report, October 13, 2026
Austin Board of Realtors, May 2023 Central Texas Housing Market Report, for the May 2022 peak
Houston Association of Realtors, September 2026 MLS report, October 14, 2026, and August 2026 Rental Market Update
Houston Agent Magazine, HAR June 2022 market update, July 15, 2022
Texas Real Estate Research Center and MetroTex, NTREIS Monthly MLS Summary Report, September 2026 and May through July 2022
San Antonio Board of Realtors, September 2026 market report, as published by My Neighborhood News, and SABOR April through July 2022 press releases
Texas Real Estate Research Center, Texas Housing Insight, September 2026 issue, and Monthly MSA Spotlight, Brownsville Harlingen, August 2026
Texas Realtors, 2019 and 2022 annual housing reports, as reported by Mortgage Professional America and Houston Agent Magazine
U.S. Census Bureau, Household Income: 2019 (ACSBR/20-03) and 2019 ACS one year estimate of median gross rent for Texas
Redfin, housing market pages for Corpus Christi, Gillespie County, Fredericksburg, Brownsville, Harlingen, South Padre Island, Pearland, and Lake Jackson, October 2026
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED, Realtor.com listing series for Fredericksburg, Corpus Christi, and Brazoria County; FHFA house price index for Gillespie County; BLS metro employment series
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio Economic Indicators, August through October 2026
Workforce Solutions, Houston Area Employment Situation Summary, August 2026
Texas Windstorm Insurance Association, Quarterly Liability Report, June 30, 2026
Texas Department of Insurance, TWIA overview for the quarter ending March 31, 2026, and homeowners rate change summary, January 2026
Insurify, Houston homeowners insurance cost, September 2026
City of Corpus Christi, Water Supply Update No. 77, October 9, 2026
CBRE, third quarter 2026 office and industrial figures for Austin, Dallas Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio
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Savills, Houston office market report, third quarter 2026
Matthews, Austin multifamily second quarter 2026 report
Northmarq, 2026 Midyear National Multifamily Report, as reported by CRE Daily, September 25, 2026
AirDNA, Fredericksburg short term rental market data, October 2026
Carter Signature Properties, June 2026 mid month market report, Surfside Beach to Treasure Island
Stacker, Brownsville house price history from Redfin data, April 2026
Zonda, San Antonio new home sales, as reported by Builder, August 2026
Federal Housing Finance Agency, National Mortgage Database, outstanding mortgage rate distribution through fourth quarter 2025, as reported by Wolf Street, March 27, 2026
Realtor.com, analysis of homes to be released by older owners 2026 to 2036, October 5, 2026, as reported by HousingWire
Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, household growth projections, as cited in the same report
Charles Schwab heir survey, as reported by the Wall Street Journal and Yahoo Finance, June 2023
Trust and Will, 2026 Real Estate Inheritance Report
D.R. Horton, fiscal third quarter 2026 results, July 21, 2026
LGI Homes, second quarter 2026 results, August 4, 2026, and third quarter closings release, October 2026
Camden Property Trust, second quarter 2026 results, July 30, 2026
Howard Hughes Holdings, first and second quarter 2026 results, May 7 and August 5, 2026
Green Brick Partners, third quarter 2026 reporting date announcement, October 1, 2026
Texas Stock Exchange, press release on Energy Transfer family primary listings, October 5, 2026, and homepage listing notices
Charles Schwab, secondary listing announcement, October 1, 2026, and Fall Business Update notice
Texas Capital Bancshares, TXSE trading announcement, October 8, 2026
Origin Bancorp, Form 8-K, September 15, 2026, and TXSE first trading day coverage, October 13, 2026
International Bancshares Corporation, primary listing transfer announcement, October 6, 2026
D Magazine, TXSE Tracker, updated October 2, 2026
24/7 Wall St., Westwood Salient Enhanced Power and Infrastructure ETF on TXSE, October 13, 2026
Texas Education Agency 2026 accountability ratings, August 14, 2026, as reported by Texas Public Radio, Fox 4, Fox 7, Fox 26, KSAT, Community Impact, and the Texas Tribune Schools Explorer
Texas 2036, 2026 Enrollment Report, May 2026, and Texas Tribune, May 11, 2026
Community Impact, Texas Education Freedom Accounts coverage, April through October 2026
Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, fall 2025 enrollment release, October 22, 2025
KUT, Austin ISD enrollment and budget, September 28, 2026
Houston Chronicle and ABC13, Houston ISD enrollment, November 2025 and August 2026
Texas Public Radio and San Antonio Report, San Antonio district budgets and university enrollment, June 30 and September 30, 2026
KRIS 6, Corpus Christi ISD enrollment and closure plan, November 2025
KRGV and Los Fresnos CISD, Cameron County district enrollment and ratings, 2025 and 2026
University of Houston, Rice University, Southern Methodist University, and UT Austin enrollment releases, 2025 and 2026